In today’s context of digital transformation and the fight against demographic decline, public service planning is no longer a matter of intuition. Today, territorial management is a data-driven science, making demand responsive transport simulation an essential tool for local administrations.

Historically, mobility in low-density population areas has been the Achilles’ heel of public transport systems. Traditional fixed-route lines fail to meet the needs of a dispersed and aging population.

To solve this structural challenge, the #NEMIFY project—funded by SEDIA (Secretaría de Estado de Digitalización e Inteligencia Artificial) under the NextGenerationEU framework of the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan, proposes a complete paradigm shift through its Component 1: the Demand Simulator.

This article breaks down how advanced simulation, powered by digital twins, not only optimizes transport routes but also designs a resilient, sustainable, and efficient digital infrastructure for rural areas.

1. The Structural Problem: The “Invisibility” of Rural Demand

The traditional transport model, based on fixed routes and rigid schedules (linear transport), is designed for urban environments where the critical mass of passengers remains constant. Transporting this model to rural settings causes the system to collapse under its own inefficiency.

Transport managers face three critical issues:

– Operational Waste (Opex): Full-sized buses travel dozens of kilometers daily without a single passenger on board. This skyrockets per-trip costs and locks municipalities into a dependence on massive subsidies to prevent service cancellation.

– Environmental Impact and Carbon Footprint: Road transport is a major generator of greenhouse gases. Running empty vehicles represents an unsustainable error under current decarbonization regulations.

– Disconnection from Citizen Needs: When public transport does not arrive when needed, or requires walking to distant stops, users turn to private vehicles. This penalizes vulnerable groups (the elderly, youth without a driver’s license) and accelerates isolation and rural depopulation.

2. What is NEMIFY’s Demand Simulator? (Component 1)

The Demand Simulator is a Digital Twin tool that allows for the virtual modeling of a territory’s mobility behavior before deploying a single physical vehicle on the road.

Unlike traditional spreadsheets or static historical logs, the NEMIFY simulator uses a process architecture capable of recreating the operational behavior of a transport service. The system generates virtual requests at specific times and calculates the full operational derivative: trip assignment, vehicle matching, and driver management.

Once the simulation finishes, all data is integrated into the platform and accessible directly via an interactive analytical dashboard to identify mobility patterns and behaviors.

3. Technical Operation: Dynamic Scenarios and “What-If” Aggregation

The technical core of the simulator lies in its ability to build “What-if” scenarios. This functionality is essential for city councils and regional governments redesigning their sustainable mobility plans.

Dynamic Stop Modeling: The simulator helps determine whether a stop should be fixed, request-based, or fully on-demand. Using demand-aggregation algorithms, the system proposes optimal pickup points that minimize vehicle detour times while maximizing occupancy.

Predictive Fleet Simulation: Is it more efficient to run a 15-passenger minibus or a network of three shared taxis? The simulator tests dozens of fleet configurations virtually to find the precise balance between operational cost and user service quality.

4. Data Sovereignty and Interoperability: The SEDIA Seal

A key element of the technical memory approved by SEDIA is the uncompromised commitment to Data Sovereignty. Within the NEMIFY ecosystem, the simulator is not a closed, opaque black box.

Thanks to strict adherence to open standards and advanced usage-control protocols, the data used for simulation remains under the absolute control of its owner—the municipality or local operator. This allows strategic information to be shared securely within federated data spaces, fully aligning with the framework developed by the European Mobility Data Space through direct collaborations with European projects.

Furthermore, simulation results can be natively exported in GTFS (General Transit Feed Specification) format. This ensures that global route planners like Google Maps, Apple Maps, or Moovit can integrate and display these new dynamic services from day one of launch.

5. Operational Impact: The “Efficiency Trifecta”

The demand simulator does not work in isolation; it forms the first link in a closed loop of continuous improvement and public transport optimization:

1. Simulate (Component 1): We predictively define the ideal service based on geographic and demographic data analytics.

2.Optimize (Component 2): The routing algorithm translates the simulation into reality, adjusting real-time operations according to user bookings and cancellations.

3. Analyze (Component 3): Once the service is executed, the platform validates real operational data to feed updated field information back into the simulator.

This cycle minimizes human error in planning and ensures that policy and budgetary decisions are grounded in solid empirical evidence rather than guesswork.

6. Conclusion: From Theory to National Infrastructure

The digitization of rural mobility—firmly backed by SEDIA and supported by the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan—represents one of the most transformative investments for territorial cohesion in Spain.

The NEMIFY Demand Simulator stands at the forefront of this technological shift. By providing operators and administrations with a scientific tool capable of predicting service performance, we are building a public transport network that is not only sustainable and efficient, but also guarantees rural citizens their fundamental right to high-quality mobility.